Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
